Reference
32 key foresight terms with definitions and card cross-references
32 terms
A governance approach that uses foresight, engagement, and integration to prepare for and shape emerging challenges and opportunities before they become crises. It emphasizes proactive rather than reactive policymaking.
A planning method that starts with a vivid image of a desirable future and works backward to the present, identifying the milestones, decisions, and conditions necessary to reach that future. Unlike forecasting, which projects forward from the present, backcasting begins with the end state.
A metaphor for an event that is highly improbable, carries massive impact, and is retrospectively rationalized as if it were predictable. Coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans expose the limits of conventional risk assessment and forecasting.
A futures research method that examines issues at four levels of depth: the litany (surface events), social/systemic causes, worldview/discourse, and deep myth/metaphor. CLA reveals the hidden structures beneath observable trends and enables transformative rather than incremental foresight.
Amy Webb's systematic approach to identifying weak signals by looking for Contradictions, Inflections, Practices, Hacks, Extremes, and Rarities at the fringe of any domain. CIPHER provides a structured lens for horizon scanning.
A visual framework that maps the expanding space of possibility over time, classifying futures from the projected (business as usual) through the probable, plausible, possible, and preposterous. The cone reminds practitioners that the further out in time, the wider the range of possible outcomes.
A process by which a smaller company or new technology displaces established market leaders, often by initially serving overlooked segments before moving upmarket. In foresight, disruption follows recognizable patterns including exponential cost curves, S-curve adoption, and technology convergence.
The underlying forces - social, technological, economic, environmental, and political - that propel trends and shape the trajectory of change. Understanding drivers means understanding causality: not just what is changing, but why.
A method for identifying issues at the earliest possible stage of development, before they become trends. Developed by Graham Molitor, it tracks the lifecycle of an issue from first academic mention through media coverage to policy response.
A risk that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-originating intelligent life or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development. Nick Bostrom's work on existential risk challenges foresight practitioners to consider civilizational-scale consequences.
The cognitive capacity to understand and anticipate change that follows exponential rather than linear patterns. Exponential thinkers recognize that technologies improving at 10% per year will be 100x better in a decade, and plan accordingly.
A way of seeing and being in the world that embraces change as a constant rather than an exception. April Rinne identifies eight "flux superpowers" including running slower, seeing what's invisible, and letting go of the future. The flux mindset treats uncertainty as an invitation rather than a threat.
Jim Dator's foundational insight that all images of the future fall into four archetypal patterns: Growth (continued expansion), Collapse (system breakdown), Discipline (deliberate constraint), and Transformation (fundamental paradigm shift). These archetypes provide a minimum viable set of alternative futures.
The capacity to understand and use the future in the present. Defined by UNESCO as a universally accessible competency, futures literacy is the ability to imagine, articulate, and use multiple futures to enhance perception, decision-making, and agency in the present.
A structured brainstorming method that maps first-, second-, and third-order consequences of a trend, event, or decision. By radiating outward from a central change, the Futures Wheel reveals hidden opportunities and threats that linear thinking misses.
Daniel Burrus's distinction between trends that will happen (hard trends, driven by demographics, physics, or regulation) and trends that might happen (soft trends, driven by preferences, culture, or sentiment). Hard trends are the foundation of certainty-based planning; soft trends are where influence is possible.
The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities, and likely future developments at the margins of current thinking. Horizon scanning looks beyond the obvious to identify weak signals and emerging issues that could become significant.
Ray Kurzweil's observation that the rate of change in evolutionary systems - including technology - tends to increase exponentially. Each generation of technology builds on the previous one, creating a compounding effect that makes linear projections dangerously misleading.
A large-scale, sustained force of transformation that reshapes economies, societies, and cultures over decades. Megatrends are distinguished from ordinary trends by their scope, duration, and depth of impact. Examples include urbanization, aging populations, and digitalization.
The range of strategic choices available to an organization or individual when facing multiple possible futures. Effective foresight expands option space by identifying robust strategies that perform well across different scenarios, rather than optimizing for a single predicted future.
A state of incremental, continuous improvement - neither the perfection of utopia nor the despair of dystopia, but a world that is measurably better tomorrow than today. Coined by Kevin Kelly, protopia acknowledges that progress is real but never complete.
A strategy that performs acceptably well across a wide range of possible futures, rather than being optimized for a single scenario. Robust strategies sacrifice some upside in the "best case" to avoid catastrophic failure in the "worst case."
The characteristic adoption pattern of new technologies and innovations: slow initial growth, rapid acceleration through the middle phase, and eventual saturation. Understanding where a technology sits on its S-curve is essential for timing strategic decisions.
The discipline of constructing internally consistent, challenging narratives about how the future might unfold. Developed at Shell by Pierre Wack and popularized by Peter Schwartz, scenario planning does not predict - it prepares. The goal is to rehearse strategic responses to fundamentally different worlds.
A structured framework for scanning the macro-environment across Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political dimensions (STEEP), sometimes extended to include Legal and Ethical factors (PESTLE). It ensures comprehensive coverage of drivers of change.
An approach to analysis that focuses on the way a system's constituent parts interrelate and work together over time within larger systems. Systems thinkers see connections, feedback loops, and emergent properties where others see isolated events.
Gerd Leonhard's framework for examining the growing tension between technological capability and human values. As technology becomes exponentially more powerful, the ethical questions of "should we?" become more important than the technical questions of "can we?"
A framework that maps the dynamics of transition between three simultaneous patterns: the declining dominant system (H1), the emerging innovations and alternatives (H3), and the entrepreneurial bridging activities that connect them (H2). It reveals how the future is already present in nascent form.
A model of system change showing how the old system declines while a new one emerges simultaneously. The two loops overlap in a transition zone where hospicing the old and nurturing the new are both essential. It reveals the roles needed during systemic transformation.
An early indicator of a potentially important change that is not yet widely recognized. Weak signals are ambiguous, often dismissed, and easy to miss - yet they are the raw material of foresight. Learning to detect them is the foundational skill of futures literacy.
A low-probability, high-impact event that can fundamentally alter the trajectory of the future. Wild cards are the earthquakes of foresight - impossible to predict precisely, but essential to prepare for. They expose the fragility of strategies built on narrow assumptions.
The practice of testing a strategy, plan, or decision against multiple scenarios to assess its robustness. Like testing an aircraft design in a wind tunnel, strategic wind-tunneling reveals vulnerabilities and failure points before they manifest in reality.