Phase 3 of 4

Strategic Experimentation

Identifying leverage points and designing strategic interventions

5 cards in this phaseTap any card to flip

This phase entails identifying potential leverage points within an ecosystem where a small shift in one thing can produce big changes in other things, and then designing strategic experiments around these hypotheses with the intention of stimulating and nudging the ecosystem towards an envisioned future.

Key Tips

Keep in mind key areas for strategic interventions: Purpose & Outcomes, Values & Core Beliefs, Actors & Roles, Connections & Relationships, Resources, Rules & Norms

Suggested Tools

Triple Loop LearningDesign ThinkingAction InquiryTransition Theory DynamicsRegenerative ApproachPeer learning

IDENTIFYING OPPORTUNITIES FOR LEVERAGE

Identifying leverage points requires both an understanding of the ecosystem's current state and insights into its highest potential (envisioned future).

- Strategic Experimentation Flip

Starting Questions

  • What patterns are keeping ecosystem in its current state?
  • What emerging patterns are already pointing towards the envisioned future?
  • What patterns of behavior or structure have a fractal nature?
  • Where does the ecosystem seem "frozen" or "stuck"?
  • Where do you sense pent-up/growing energy for change?
  • Are there any overlooked or unconventional areas that might have significant potential for leverage?

Tips

  • - Watch out for nodes
  • - Keep in mind qualities of the envisioned ecosystem

Tools

Three HorizonsPanarchyTwo Loops
Ecosystem Cards Flip back

ARTICULATING LEVERAGE HYPOTHESES

A leverage hypothesis is a tentative statement that suggests a possible relationship between interventions and desired outcomes. It can be tested during or through a strategic experiment.

- Strategic Experimentation Flip

Starting Questions

  • What leverage area are you looking at?
  • By intervening in this area how might you strengthen desirable dynamics?
  • How might you weaken undesirable dynamics?
  • How might you shift dynamics or introduce new dynamics?
  • What might the potential unintended consequences be?

Tips

  • - Use the starting questions to help formulate your inquiry
  • - Use the structure of "If ..., then ..."
  • - Iterate on your hypothesis
  • - Make sure the hypothesis is testable
  • - Think in sequence of transformations, not sequence of activities

Tools

"How Might We" questionsLeverage Hypothesis Mad Lib
Ecosystem Cards Flip back

DESIGNING & RUNNING STRATEGIC EXPERIMENTS

Strategic experiments encompass multiple and contradictory small scale interventions conducted simultaneously to test leverage hypotheses and gain insights from both successes and failures.

- Strategic Experimentation Flip

Starting Questions

  • What small-scale experiments can be designed to test hypotheses?
  • Which experiments align most closely with the envisioned ecosystem?
  • What qualities of the envisioned ecosystem do the experiments adopt?
  • Which experiments spark the most excitement or curiosity?
  • Do you have the legitimacy to lead on those experiments?
  • What do you intend to observe from experiments?

Tips

  • - Design experiments in a such way that they are safe-to-fail
  • - Be aware about Hawthorne Effect
  • - Test your hypothesis from various angles through multiple and contradictory experiments

Tools

1-2-4-All25/10 Crowd SourcingWorst Possible Idea
Ecosystem Cards Flip back

EVALUATION & SENSEMAKING

Strategic Experimentation

SM

Evaluate and make sense of the outcomes from your strategic experiments.

- Strategic Experimentation Flip

Starting Questions

  • What are the most important things you have observed and learned?
  • Where did you notice positive developments/momentum towards the envisioned future?
  • Where did you notice resistance?
  • What (small) change have you noticed in the ecosystem?
  • What (small) change have you noticed in yourself? In your organisation?
  • What questions do you have now?
  • What might be the next steps?

Tips

  • - Value the devil's advocates and voices from the periphery
  • - Be honest about any failures or unintended consequences
  • - Be patient with the process
  • - Consider how to share learnings with the wider ecosystem

Tools

Open discussionGuided journaling"What? So What? Now What?"
Ecosystem Cards Flip back

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Envisioning

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Ecosystem Roles