Phase 4 of 4
Foresight Mindsets
The cognitive postures that effective foresight practitioners cultivate
Futures literacy is not just a set of tools - it is a way of being. These mindset cards describe the cognitive postures that effective foresight practitioners cultivate. Like the Ecosystem Cards' roles, these mindsets can be adopted by anyone at any phase of the process.
Key Principles
Core Frameworks
THE SCANNER
The Scanner maintains a wide, restless attention - always watching the periphery, collecting anomalies, and connecting dots that others miss. They are the early warning system of the group, sensing change before it becomes obvious.
Inspired by: Amy Webb, Graham Molitor, Richard Watson
Practitioner Notes
- - Cultivate diverse information sources
- - Trust your instinct when something feels "off"
- - Share signals generously - they gain meaning through collective interpretation
THE PROVOCATEUR
The Provocateur deliberately challenges assumptions, introduces uncomfortable possibilities, and asks the questions no one else dares to ask. They prevent groupthink and ensure the team confronts futures it would rather avoid.
Inspired by: Gerd Leonhard, Nick Bostrom, Roger Spitz
Practitioner Notes
- - Challenge with curiosity, not hostility
- - Ask "What if the opposite were true?"
- - The most valuable provocation is the one that makes the room go silent
THE STORYTELLER
The Storyteller transforms abstract trends and data into vivid, compelling narratives that make futures feel real. They know that humans think in stories, not spreadsheets - and that a well-told scenario can shift strategy more than a hundred data points.
Inspired by: Peter Schwartz, Neal Stephenson, Amelia Kallman
Practitioner Notes
- - Make futures concrete and sensory - what does it smell, sound, and feel like?
- - Give your scenarios memorable names
- - A good futures story makes the audience feel something, not just think something
THE SYSTEMS THINKER
The Systems Thinker sees connections, feedback loops, and emergent properties where others see isolated events. They map the architecture of change - understanding that pulling one lever always moves others, often in unexpected directions.
Inspired by: Sohail Inayatullah, Donella Meadows, Jerome Glenn
Practitioner Notes
- - Always ask "and then what?" at least three times
- - Draw the system before trying to change it
- - Look for leverage points - small interventions with large systemic effects
THE EXPONENTIAL THINKER
The Exponential Thinker has internalized the counterintuitive reality that change accelerates. They see S-curves where others see straight lines, and they understand that the most disruptive transformations appear to happen "suddenly" only to those who weren't paying attention.
Inspired by: Ray Kurzweil, Tony Seba, Kevin Kelly
Practitioner Notes
- - When in doubt, assume faster than you think
- - Track cost curves, not headlines
- - The most dangerous assumption is that tomorrow will look like today
THE ETHICIST
The Ethicist asks the questions that technology and markets do not: Should we? For whom? At what cost? They ensure that futures work serves humanity rather than merely optimizing for efficiency, profit, or power.
Inspired by: Gerd Leonhard, Kriti Sharma, Nick Bostrom
Practitioner Notes
- - Ask "who benefits and who is harmed?" about every imagined future
- - Distinguish between what we can do and what we should do
- - Center the voices of those most affected and least powerful
THE NAVIGATOR
The Navigator thrives in ambiguity. Drawing on April Rinne's Flux mindset, they have learned to let go of the need for certainty and instead develop the art of wayfinding - adjusting course continuously as new information emerges.
Inspired by: April Rinne, Roger Spitz, Jonathan Brill
Practitioner Notes
- - Embrace "good enough" over "perfect"
- - Build a portfolio of options, not a single plan
- - The ability to change direction quickly is more valuable than the ability to predict correctly
THE ANTICIPATOR
The Anticipator distinguishes between what will happen (hard trends) and what might happen (soft trends), using this distinction to act with confidence on certainties while remaining flexible on possibilities. They pre-solve problems before they arrive.
Inspired by: Daniel Burrus, Kevin Kelly, Lars Thomsen
Practitioner Notes
- - Separate hard trends from soft trends - act on the former, influence the latter
- - Ask "what problem can I solve before it occurs?"
- - Anticipation is a skill that improves with deliberate practice
THE PROTOPIAN
The Protopian rejects both naive utopianism and paralyzing dystopian despair. Instead, they hold the vision of incremental, continuous improvement - a future that is slightly better than today, every day. They know that progress creates new problems, and they are okay with that.
Inspired by: Kevin Kelly, Gerd Leonhard, Rohit Talwar
Practitioner Notes
- - Progress is not perfection - aim for "better," not "best"
- - New solutions create new problems - that is the nature of protopia
- - Optimism is a strategy, not a personality trait
THE HOSPICE WORKER
The Hospice Worker tends to the systems, institutions, and ideas that are dying - helping them decline with dignity rather than clinging to life support. They understand that the new cannot fully emerge until the old is released, and they bring compassion to that process.
Inspired by: Margaret Wheatley, Deborah Frieze (Two Loop Model)
Practitioner Notes
- - Not everything worth preserving can be preserved - grieve what must go
- - Help people transition, not just systems
- - The Hospice Worker is the most emotionally demanding and least celebrated mindset - and among the most important