Phase 3 of 4

Stress-Testing

Wind-tunneling strategies against multiple futures to build resilience

6 cards in this phaseTap any card to flip

The Stress-Testing phase takes the futures you have imagined and uses them as "wind tunnels" to test the robustness of your strategies, decisions, and assumptions. The goal is not to find the "right" future but to build strategies that are resilient across multiple futures.

Key Principles

Test strategies against your most challenging scenarios, not just the comfortable ones
Look for "no-regret" moves - actions that create value regardless of which future unfolds
Identify "real options" - low-cost actions today that preserve flexibility for tomorrow
Be honest about where your strategy breaks - that is where the learning lives
This phase builds the bridge between foresight and action

Core Frameworks

Wind Tunneling / Stress TestingRoger Spitz - AAA FrameworkRobust Decision MakingReal Options AnalysisApril Rinne - Flux Superpowers

WIND TUNNELING

Wind tunneling means systematically running your strategy through each of your constructed scenarios to see where it thrives, where it survives, and where it breaks. It is the most direct method for converting foresight into strategic resilience.

UK Government Office for Science; UNDP Foresight Playbook

- Stress-Testing
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Inquiry Prompts

  • How does your current strategy perform in each of the futures you constructed?
  • In which scenario does it thrive? In which does it fail catastrophically?
  • What are the specific breaking points - the conditions under which your strategy collapses?
  • What early warning signals would indicate that a breaking-point scenario is beginning to unfold?
  • How could you modify the strategy to perform adequately across all scenarios?

Practitioner Notes

  • - Use a simple scoring matrix: rate strategy performance (1-5) against each scenario
  • - Pay special attention to scenarios where the strategy scores lowest - that is where vulnerability lives
  • - The goal is not a strategy that is optimal for one future but robust across many

Frameworks

Wind TunnelingScenario-Strategy MatrixVulnerability Assessment
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BUILDING ANTIFRAGILITY

Antifragility goes beyond resilience. A resilient strategy survives shocks; an antifragile strategy actually improves because of them. Roger Spitz's AAA Framework - Antifragility, Anticipatory, Agility - provides the architecture for strategies that gain from disorder.

Roger Spitz - AAA Framework; Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Antifragile

- Stress-Testing
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Inquiry Prompts

  • Where is your strategy merely resilient (bounces back) versus antifragile (gets stronger from stress)?
  • What small, reversible experiments could you run that benefit from volatility?
  • How can you build optionality - the ability to benefit from upside while limiting downside?
  • What would make your organization more anticipatory - able to sense change before it arrives?
  • Where do you need more agility - the ability to pivot quickly when conditions shift?

Practitioner Notes

  • - Antifragility requires exposure to small stressors - organizations that avoid all risk become brittle
  • - Build a portfolio of strategic experiments, not a single master plan
  • - Spitz's insight: the goal is not to predict the future but to be prepared for futures, plural

Frameworks

AAA Framework (Spitz)Antifragile (Taleb)Barbell Strategy
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NO-REGRET MOVES

A no-regret move is an action that creates value regardless of which future unfolds. Identifying these moves is the highest-leverage output of the stress-testing process - they are the actions you can take with confidence even in deep uncertainty.

- Stress-Testing
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Inquiry Prompts

  • What actions would benefit your organization in every scenario you constructed?
  • What capabilities, relationships, or assets would be valuable across all futures?
  • What investments in learning, adaptability, or optionality are worth making regardless?
  • What risks can you eliminate now that would be costly in any future?
  • What "real options" can you create - small bets today that preserve big choices tomorrow?

Practitioner Notes

  • - No-regret moves often involve building capabilities rather than committing to specific outcomes
  • - Investing in relationships, learning systems, and organizational agility are classic no-regret moves
  • - Distinguish between no-regret moves (always good), hedging moves (good in some scenarios), and big bets (good in one scenario)

Frameworks

Robust Decision MakingReal Options AnalysisAdaptive Strategy
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NAVIGATING FLUX

April Rinne's Flux Mindset provides eight "superpowers" for thriving in constant change. These are not strategies but cognitive postures - ways of being that make you more effective in a world where the ground is always shifting beneath your feet.

April Rinne - Flux: 8 Superpowers for Thriving in Constant Change

- Stress-Testing
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Inquiry Prompts

  • Run Slower: Where are you moving too fast to see clearly? What would slowing down reveal?
  • See What's Invisible: What blind spots in your strategy has this process revealed?
  • Get Lost: Where do you need to embrace discomfort and venture into unknown territory?
  • Start with Trust: Where could extending more trust unlock collaboration and speed?
  • Know Your Enough: What does "enough" look like - and where are you overreaching?
  • Let Go of the Future: Where are you clinging to a specific outcome that you need to release?

Practitioner Notes

  • - The Flux superpowers are personal and organizational - apply them at both levels
  • - The most counterintuitive superpower is often the most needed
  • - "Let Go of the Future" does not mean stop caring - it means stop trying to control what you cannot

Frameworks

Flux Superpowers (Rinne)Adaptive LeadershipCynefin Framework
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EVALUATION & SENSEMAKING

Sensemaking in the Stress-Testing phase means synthesizing what you have learned from wind-tunneling your strategies. What broke? What held? What surprised you? And most importantly: what will you do differently?

- Stress-Testing
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Inquiry Prompts

  • What are the most important vulnerabilities your stress-testing revealed?
  • What no-regret moves emerged clearly from the process?
  • Where did you discover unexpected resilience in your strategy?
  • What assumptions did the stress-testing force you to abandon or revise?
  • What early warning indicators will you now monitor?
  • What is the single most important strategic adjustment you will make?
  • What questions do you need to carry forward into your next cycle of futures work?

Practitioner Notes

  • - Be honest about failures - a strategy that "works in every scenario" probably wasn't tested rigorously enough
  • - Document your early warning indicators and assign someone to monitor them
  • - Share your findings with decision-makers who were not in the room - their fresh perspective is valuable
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Foresight Mindsets